The winners

Of course the Oscar-hype got to me. I'm always a keen follower of the whole Academy Award ritual (even if I always maintain that the Academy Awards aren't really proof of merit), and this year, I'm keener still, mainly because of the run up to the Oscars and the attitudes towards certain films. The Golden Globes, for instance, was full of surprises for me. Kate Winslet won Best Actress as well as Best Actress in a Supporting Role for Revolutionary Road and The Reader, respectively. Neither film has been reviewed favourably, but Winslet has been screaming for an award for a long time now. As Rose DeWitt Bukater in Titanic (1997), the young Iris Murdoch in Iris (2001), the colourful-haired Clementine Kruczynski in Eternal Sunshine of the Spotless Mind (2004) and Sarah Pierce (on of her best portrayals, in my opinion) in Little Children (2006), Winslet has persistently put in performances ranging from very good to almost brilliant. This year, she's got two films on her side, and performances that are being spoken of as her best ever. The question is, will they be judged as superior to Meryl Streep's Sister Aloysius Beauvier in Doubt?
The other thing that's possesed me is the manic excitement over Slumdog Millionaire. A nomination at the Golden Globes was expected, but as it won award after award after award, it just annoyed me. It annoyed me because everyone seems to buying its telescopic look at the Third World, it annoys me because no one seems to notice how badly written it is, and it annoys me because now I think it's actually going to go ahead and win everything this year.
And then the fact that Doubt, in my opinion one of the best films this year, hasn't even been nominated in the category of Best Film. So I thought, what the hell, let's take a closer look at all the contenders and make some predictions.

Actor, Leading Role:
Richard Jenkins (The Visitor)
Frank Langella (Frost/Nixon)
Sean Penn (Milk)
Brad Pitt (The Curious Case of Benjamin Button)
Mickey Rourke (The Wrestler)

Who is likely to win: Frank Langella
Who should win: Frank Langella

Mickey Rourke was stunning in The Wrestler. Having seen him in the kind of borderline B-Grade tripe he used to do back in the day when he had perfect hair and pretty lips, it shocked me to even just look at him in The Wrestler. His aging, lonely wrestler was perfectly played. I don't think he'd win for two reasons, though. Firstly, he's not the kind of actor the Academy favours. This is not the Golden Globes (which are often like consolation prizes for those who are likely to miss out at the Oscars). Secondly, unlike The Wrestler, Frost/Nixon was not a film made tailored entirely to showcase the strengths of its actor. And yet, Frank Langella carried the film. His Richard Nixon was much more than just good make up and voice training, and that tips the balance in his favour.
Sean Penn, of course, is another very, very close contender. His Harvey Milk was brilliant, but it was tailored for him. And he's won before.

Actor, Supporting Role:
Josh Brolin (Milk)
Robert Downey, Jr. (Tropic Thunder)
Philip Seymour Hoffman (Doubt)
Heath Ledger (The Dark Knight)
Michael Shannon (Revolutionary Road)

Who is likely to win: Heath Ledger
Who should win: Heath Ledger

First of all, the guys at Tropic Thunder should be celebrating. An Oscar nomination? Who would have thought? Yes, I did think Robert Downey, Jr. was great, but the film was most ridiculous (I admit I enjoyed it). More importantly, it is not a film stained with tears, or frayed at the edges from age and pain and hardship. It's a wonder the Oscars even noticed it.
As for Heath Ledger: no, he isn't going to win it because he's dead. He's going to win it because each time he appeared on screen, he chewed it all up and swallowed it in one, tiny gulp. Because when he holds up a potato peeler and asks Rachel if she'd like to know how he got the scars on his face, it makes you feel mortally afraid. Because when he pulls his mouth back and raises his eyes to look at the people around him, you can't help a very, very nervous giggle. Because when he flicks his tongue in and out of his mouth like a salamander, he's actually going into the head of this very disturbed comic-book character, not making a caricature of it. And because very respectfully but surely, he pulled the rug from under the feet of Gods like Michael Caine and Morgan Freeman.

Actress, Leading Role:
Anne Hathaway (Rachel Getting Married)
Angelina Jolie (Changeling)
Melissa Leo (Frozen River)
Meryl Streep (Doubt)
Kate Winslet (The Reader)

Who is likely to win: Kate Winslet
Who should win: Meryl Streep

Like Ricky Gervais announced at the Golden Globes, "Do a holocaust film, you'll get the awards!" Let me not be unfair: I haven't watched The Reader. I think Winslet will get it, though, because a: it's a holocaust movie, b: somebody give it to her already!
Now I did watch Doubt, and even as I admit I'm a sucker for good performances, I was held in trance by Streep's Sister Aloysius, who snarls ans spits and roars and cowers, standing as fierce as a pitt-bull guarding its master's home, while betraying, every now and then, a fleeting glimpse of vulnerability.
Then again, she's the highest nominated actor in history, she's won plenty, and she's nowhere near bein done with acting. So Winslet can have it this year.

Actress, Supporting Role:
Amy Adams (Doubt)
Penelope Cruz (Vicky Cristina Barcelona)
Viola Davis (Doubt)
Taraji P. Henson (The Curious Case of Benjamin Button)
Marisa Tomei (The Wrestler)

Who is likely to win: Taraji P. Henson
Who should win: Amy Adams

This is possibly the toughest category for me, because everyone was spectacular. Marisa Tomei was perfectly cast as the aging stripper. Penelope Cruz doesn't cease to amaze me these days; I don't know if it's the Spanish in her, but there is an animation to her performances that is unmatched. As the mentally disturbed but ravishing Maria-Elena, she was brilliant. Let's be honest, though, these are not the kind of roles the Academy honours.
Viola Davis was stunning, the only concern is that her role was way to short. The pity is, with everyone's excitement over Davis' work, Amy Adams seems to have been sidelined a bit. Personally, I think she matched Philip Seymour Hoffman and Meryl Streep in acting. Her naive, quivering Sister James was beautifully subdued, and I think that is a part of the reason why no one seems to have taken much notice of her work.
Which leaves Taraji P. Henson, who did very well too, and had a full length role to compliment her talent.

Animated Feature Film:
Bolt
Kung Fu Panda
Wall-E

Who is likely to win: Wall-E
Who should win: Wall-E

I loved Kung Fu Panda. It was awesome. And then there's the philosophical, post-apocalyptic story of love which lends itself to a postmodern reading as an allegory of the degeneration of the human psyche, and the disintegration of the human race into nothing more than a group of identical, assembly-line, mechanical beings that leaves the cleaning up of its destruction of the Earth to a creature way ahead of its time, a machine who, ironically, is emotional, sensitive and intelligent: Wall-E.
Eat that, Kung Fu Panda!

Art Direction:
Changeling
The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
The Duchess
The Dark Knight
Revolutionary Road

Who is likely to win: The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
Who should win: The Curious Case of Benjamin Button

In the case of the other four, while the art direction was great, it wasn't extraordinary. It wasn't anything beyond what one has come to expect of a big budget film of each of those particular genres. Benjamin Button, on the other hand, was interesting. It was challenging, it crept across decades, across places, and it kept the visual interest high with every scene (and change of scene).

Cinematography:
Changeling
The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
The Dark Knight
The Reader
Slumdog Millionaire

Who is likely to win: Slumdog Millionaire
Who should win: Slumdog Millionaire

I'll give it to Slumdog Millionaire where it deserves it: the cinematography was breathtaking.

Costumes:
Australia
The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
The Duchess
Milk
Revolutionary Road

Who is likely to win: The Duchess/Australia
Who should win: Milk/The Curious Case of Benjamin Button

Traditionally the Oscar in this category always goes to a period film. As if somehow it's terribly unchallenging or easy to design costumes for a group of men living in San Francisco in the 1970s, or for a subarban housewife of the 1950s, or a New Orleans couple whose journey spans decades, coming up to the present. So while I'd really like to see one of the others win, I'd put my money on The Duchess or Australia.

Directing:
The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
Frost/Nixon
Milk
The Reader
Slumdog Millionaire

Who is likely to win: Slumdog Millionaire
Who should win: The Curious Case of Benjamin Button

Milk was a personality film, while Frost/Nixon belonged to the editor and writer (even though directors always tend to interfere in those specializations!). While I don't think Benjamin Button was the best film of the year, even a great film by itself, I do believe it was beautifully, and sensitively directed. Slumdog Millionaire was problematic in ways that it does not seem to realise. Is this the responsibility of the director? Of course it is. But we all know it's going to win, and by now, we all know why.

Film Editing:
The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
The Dark Knight
Frost/Nixon
Milk
Slumdog Millionaire

Who is likely to win: Slumdog Millionaire
Who should win: Frost/Nixon

Again, kudos to Danny Boyle and his crew for being spot-on in all the technical categories. The editing of Slumdog was good, and it won't be altogether undeserved if it wins the award. Frost/Nixon, however, was possible only because of the editing. It was a film crafted out of one, long interview session, and to make that interesting was entirely the responsibility of the editor, who did a brilliant job of it.

Make Up:
The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
The Dark Knight
Hellboy II: The Golden Army

Who is likely to win: The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
Who should win: The Dark Knight

If one of the contenders in this category involves taking Brad Pitt's face, making it look like it is seventy years old, and then putting it on the body of a five-year-old, the others can mostly forget about winning.
Really, though, no one ever conceptualised The Joker like this before. Jack Nicholson's Joker played up the legend of the horror behind the impenetrable, smiling face. The Dark Knight gave The Joker his own face. It was a face you could see, and yet a face that was horrifically painted. The red smudged across his mouth, the creases in the white paint where there were creases in his skin, all made The Joker so much more creepy. And, I think for the first time, it was the look that defined his character just as much as the plot and story did.

Music (Score):
The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
Defiance
Milk
Slumdog Millionaire
Wall-E

Who is likely to win: Slumdog Millionaire
Who should win: Slumdog Millionaire

The music of Slumdog Millionaire is like the taste of mango chutney on the tongue of a white man. It tastes like nothing he's ever had before, he can't make head or tail of it, sometimes the flavours (oh, SO many flavours in that little drop of chutney!) get too much for him to bear, but he's hooked. He's hooked to the newness of it, the tantalising, heady feeling it gives him when he swallows it, the crispness of the little pieces of poppadums he dips in it, wondering what else he could eat it with...

Music (Song):
"Down to Earth" (Wall-E)
"Jai Ho" (Slumdog Millionaire)
"O Saya" (Slumdog Millionaire)

Who is likely to win: "Jai Ho"
Who should win: "Jai Ho"

To add to what I said above, of course, I do think AR Rahman is a genius. And it's nice that his genius is being recognised, even if just for a fleeting moment, on the international stage. Plus, "Down to Earth," While being a nice song, isn't much different from the inspiring, soaring, touching and truthful songs one gets so often in animated features.

Best Picture:
The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
Frost/Nixon
Milk
The Reader
Slumdog Millionaire

Who is likely to win: Slumdog Millionaire
Who should win: Milk/The Curious Case of Benjamin Button

Grumble, grumble, grumble...
I mentioned, Benjamin Button isn't one of my favourite films, but one of my favourite films from this year, Doubt, never made it to the list (for which I'm still awaiting an explanation). Milk is a great film, no doubt, but I think a large part of its greatness stems from how inspiring the character and life of Harvey Milk are.
And let's be honest, it seems like this year, nothing's going to match up to the glorious tale of destitution that we've all had to take notice of.

Sound Editing:
The Dark Knight
Iron Man
Slumdog Millionaire
Wall-E
Wanted

Who is likely to win: The Dark Knight
Who should win: The Dark Knight

Personally, I don't think any of the films in this category did anything exceptional, but it is an award that needs to be given, nonetheless.

Sound Mixing:
The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
The Dark Knight
Slumdog Millionaire
Wall-E
Wanted

Who is likely to win: Slumdog Millionaire
Who should win: Slumdog Millionaire

Now this is something slightly more interesting. The other very close contender, I would think, is Wall-E, simply because as a film it depends to a very great extent on the maintenance of interest in its sound. Don't let the simplicity of the sound fool you. Every aspect of the sound in Wall-E, right from the scramble of the cockroach's feet to the soft, quiet and very expresseive sounds made by Wall-E and Eve, were dead right. Slumdog, however, had a lot more going for it (I guess there's just a lot more mixing to contend with when you're shooting on the streets of India, isn't there?). The multiplicity of layers in its sound mixing tips the balance in its favour.

Visual Effects:
The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
The Dark Knight
Iron Man

Who is likely to win: The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
Who should win: The Curious Case of Benjamin Button

Gotham was very well done, but very clearly Chicago in the end. And Batman isn't really a superhero, so there isn't the kind of potential one sees in Iron Man. That, in its turn, was very well done indeed, but remember, it's contending with a film about a boy who grows from old to young, and does so stunningly.

Writing (Adapted Screenplay):
The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
Doubt
Frost/Nixon
The Reader
Slumdog Millionaire

Who is likely to win: The Reader
Who should win: The Curious Case of Benjamin Button

Doubt and Frost/Nixon lose out as far as I'm concerned, simply because of their unflinching loyalty to the plays they are adapted from. There really wasn't much 'adaptation' to do, frankly. Slumdog was just awfully written, frankly. The guys in the film, we're given to believe, speak English as their first language. Anyone who knows an Indian who speaks English as his/her first language, knows that he/she would cringe at somethig like "Mumbai is the centre of the world, and I am at the centre of the centre." It was a problem of translation, to a large extent: Jamal's brother murmuring "God is great" just as he dies, wouldn't have been half as ridiculous if it was said in Urdu.
The Reader will win, I think, firstly because it isn't going to win much else, secondly because I think it's the kind of heavy, bloodstained screenplay that grabs the fancy of the Academy.

Writing (Original Screenplay):
Frozen River
Happy-Go-Lucky
In Bruges
Milk
Wall-E

Who is likely to win: Frozen River
Who should win: Wall-E

Wall-E would have had to have a brilliant screenplay because it is a film that depends entirely on action, movement and mise-en-scene. Writing a screenplay for dialogue-heavy scripts is that much easier. However, Frozen River, again, is unlikely to win anything else, and going by precedent, the Academy likes honouring obscurity (albeit smart/interesting/brilliant obscurity) in this category.

I can't possibly comment on the live action and animated shorts, as I haven't watched any of them. Of the documentaries, I have only watched Man on Wire, which is gripping. A piece on that is forthcoming...